DCPS Should Plan to Grow to 65,000

Source: OSSE Enrollment Audit Data, SY2011-12 and SY2016-17

Last month Chancellor Antwan Wilson released DC Public Schools’ new five-year strategic plan entitled, “A Capital Commitment: 2017-2022”. The plan includes six goals to measure the system’s progress toward achieving its vision, mission and strategic priorities. The sixth goal, “90% of students re-enroll and DCPS serves 54,000 students,” shows that DCPS plans to grow by over 5,000 students from 48,510 in SY2016-17. We took a closer look at enrollment over the last five years, in order to identify where the greatest growth potential is for DCPS. DCPS can provide high quality by-right schools to under-served communities.  By delivering on its 2017-22 Capital Commitment for citywide equity, school excellence, staff empowerment, whole child education, and community engagement, DCPS should plan to grow to 65,000 students.

Over the last five school years DCPS grew its enrollment by 3,345 total students from 45,165 to 48,510. Simultaneously, charter schools in the city gained 9,929 students from 31,562 enrolled in to 41,491 enrolled. During this five-year window DCPS permanently closed 10 schools and DC PCSB opened 20 new charter LEAs. According to OSSE audit data, charter growth outpaced DCPS growth by a scale of roughly three to one from 2011 to 2016.

By disaggregating the data, it becomes clear that charter schools outpaced DCPS at every grade level. In early childhood education (ECE) charters gained over 1,000 students while DCPS gained less than 500. In the elementary grades (K-5th) both sectors saw significant growth, accounting for 119% of all DCPS growth and 64% of increases amongst charters. In the middle grades (6th-8th) DCPS lost enrollment over the past five years while charters gained seats, although less than in the elementary grades. DCPS high schools (9th-12th) saw a significant drop in their 9th grade enrollment (down 433 students), and lagged behind charters, which gained 845 high school students overall. The largest gap was in adult education where DCPS lost 315 students and charters had their largest increase, up 1,197 students in five years.

What should DCPS do to grow its enrollment? DCPS should open  by-right PK3 in all its Title I schools and provide by-right PK4 space in every neighborhood school.  At the secondary level (6th-12th grade) DCPS should invest in programs to retain its elementary grade growth and support school flexibility. By engaging communities and empowering school staff in struggling schools, DCPS could attract families to choose their neighborhood schools over charters. DCPS needs to increase its seats available in the lottery for out-of-boundary, there are great options within DCPS which are not being made available to families. To enroll 65,000 students in DCPS will take focus and discipline, but this goal is well within reach.

5 Year Enrollment Growth by Grade and Sector; SY2011-12 to SY2016-17

Source: OSSE Enrollment Audit Data, SY2011-12 and SY2016-17

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